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Barclays economists predict that the People's Bank of China (PBOC) will need to implement further monetary easing due to persistently low inflation, weak domestic demand, and escalating tariff tensions. While immediate action may not occur, the bank forecasts a 20 basis point policy rate cut this year, along with 50 to 100 basis points in reserve requirement ratio cuts to bolster liquidity and growth.
Barclays economists predict that the People's Bank of China (PBOC) will need to implement further monetary easing due to low inflation, weak domestic demand, and rising tariff tensions. They forecast a 20 basis point policy rate cut this year, along with 50 to 100 basis points of reserve requirement ratio cuts to enhance liquidity and support growth.
Morgan Stanley has increased its 2025 economic growth forecast for China to 4.5%, citing a stronger starting point and robust capital expenditure. However, growth is expected to slow from Q2 due to US tariffs and countermeasures. The bank also predicts the yuan will trade at 7.35 against the dollar by mid-2025, ending the year at 7.50, reflecting the People's Bank of China's focus on currency stability.
Kingdee International Software Group, a leading Chinese enterprise software provider, has integrated DeepSeek AI into its software to enhance business management functions such as finance, HR, and supply chain management. The company also launched Cosmic, a platform enabling enterprises to create customized AI agents using DeepSeek models, aiming to boost self-sufficiency in product development. This initiative positions DeepSeek as a cost-effective solution for software vendors and businesses with limited resources for AI integration.
China's NEV retail sales are projected to rebound to 1 million units in March, with a penetration rate of 54.1%. Overall passenger car sales are expected to reach approximately 1.85 million units, marking a 9.1% year-on-year increase and a 33.7% rise from February. The market is recovering as the effects of the Chinese New Year holiday diminish.
Morgan Stanley has increased its 2025 GDP growth forecast for China by 50 basis points to 4.5%. This adjustment reflects the positive effects of stimulus measures on local governments and consumption, which are beginning to show signs of improvement.
JD Takeaway, JD.com’s food delivery service, has achieved over 1 million daily orders just 40 days post-launch, now operating in 142 cities across China. The platform offers meals from over 450,000 restaurants, benefiting from a zero-commission policy for merchants until May 2025. To engage users, JD is hosting daily meal-subsidy draws, providing opportunities for discounts and cash rewards.
Financial markets stabilized last week as tariff concerns eased and major central banks held interest rates steady. The US faces challenges with elevated equity valuations, while the Hang Seng Index struggled to maintain momentum. Key economic indicators, including US Q4 GDP and PCE inflation data, are anticipated this week amid rising stagflation concerns.
Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent has criticized the accuracy of GDP numbers, asserting that the Biden administration overlooked the real economic struggles faced by Americans. He emphasized the importance of addressing public sentiment over statistical data, as rising gas prices and grocery costs continue to strain household finances. Amidst a turbulent economic landscape and a trade war initiated by Trump, Bessent vowed to prioritize understanding the anxieties of the public in shaping economic policy.
UBS reports a stabilization in China's property market, with inventory levels below the 15-year average and rising land auction premiums. The bank sees potential for A-shares to catch up with Hong Kong stocks, driven by improving macro indicators and a supportive policy environment, while corporate confidence is expected to rise following President Xi's reaffirmation of support for the private sector.
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barclays predicts imminent monetary easing from people's bank of china
04:40 24.03.2025
barclays predicts imminent monetary easing from people's bank of china
04:40 24.03.2025
Morgan Stanley raises China's 2025 growth forecast amid economic challenges
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Kingdee integrates DeepSeek AI to enhance enterprise software capabilities
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China's NEV sales expected to reach one million units in March
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Morgan Stanley increases China's 2025 GDP growth forecast to 4.5 percent
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JD Takeaway reaches one million daily orders within 40 days of launch
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financial markets stabilize amid tariff easing and central bank rate decisions
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15:11 23.03.2025
investor sentiment shifts positively towards china equities amid policy easing and innovation
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